Orton, P M; Hall, T M; Talke, S A; Blumberg, A F; Georgas, N; Vinogradov, S A validated tropical-extratropical flood hazard assessment for New York Harbor Journal Article In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (12), pp. 8904–8929, 2016, ISSN: 2169-9291. Abstract | Links | BibTeX @article{JGRC:JGRC22000,
title = {A validated tropical-extratropical flood hazard assessment for New York Harbor},
author = {P. M. Orton and T. M. Hall and S. A. Talke and A. F. Blumberg and N. Georgas and S. Vinogradov},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011679},
doi = {10.1002/2016JC011679},
issn = {2169-9291},
year = {2016},
date = {2016-01-01},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
volume = {121},
number = {12},
pages = {8904--8929},
abstract = {Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment is based on simulations of historical storms with many random tide scenarios. Synthetic TC landfall rates and the final TC and ETC flood exceedance curves are all shown to be consistent with curves computed using historical data, within 95% confidence ranges. Combining the ETC and TC results together, the 100 year return period storm tide at NYH is 2.70 m (2.51–2.92 at 95% confidence), and Hurricane Sandy's storm tide of 3.38 m was a 260 year (170–420) storm tide. Deeper analyses of historical flood reports from estimated Category-3 hurricanes in 1788 and 1821 lead to new estimates and reduced uncertainties for their floods and show that Sandy's storm tide was the largest at NYH back to at least 1700. The flood exceedance curves for ETCs and TCs have sharply different slopes due to their differing meteorology and frequency, warranting separate treatment in hazard assessments.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment is based on simulations of historical storms with many random tide scenarios. Synthetic TC landfall rates and the final TC and ETC flood exceedance curves are all shown to be consistent with curves computed using historical data, within 95% confidence ranges. Combining the ETC and TC results together, the 100 year return period storm tide at NYH is 2.70 m (2.51–2.92 at 95% confidence), and Hurricane Sandy's storm tide of 3.38 m was a 260 year (170–420) storm tide. Deeper analyses of historical flood reports from estimated Category-3 hurricanes in 1788 and 1821 lead to new estimates and reduced uncertainties for their floods and show that Sandy's storm tide was the largest at NYH back to at least 1700. The flood exceedance curves for ETCs and TCs have sharply different slopes due to their differing meteorology and frequency, warranting separate treatment in hazard assessments. |
Jay, D A; Talke, S A; Hudson, A; Twardowski, M S Estuarine turbidity maxima revisited: Instrumental approaches, remote sensing, modeling studies, and new directions Book Chapter In: Ashworth, P J; Best, J L; Parsons, D R (Ed.): 68 , pp. 48-109, Elsevier, 1, 2015, ISBN: 9780444635297. Abstract | Links | BibTeX @inbook{Jay2015,
title = {Estuarine turbidity maxima revisited: Instrumental approaches, remote sensing, modeling studies, and new directions},
author = {D. A. Jay and S. A. Talke and A. Hudson and M. S. Twardowski},
editor = {P. J. Ashworth and J. L. Best and D. R. Parsons
},
doi = {10.1016/B978-0-444-63529-7.00004-3},
isbn = {9780444635297},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-11-23},
volume = {68},
pages = {48-109},
publisher = {Elsevier},
edition = {1},
series = {Developments in Sedimentology},
abstract = {Estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) are zones of elevated sediment concentration that often occur in coastal plain, salt wedge, and river-dominated estuaries, where they influence the morphodynamic development, biogeochemical cycling, and contaminant redistribution of these systems. In this review, we examine recent advances in in situ and remote sensing techniques that can be used to improve our understanding of ETM, summarize recent theoretical and numerical modeling results, and define a series of research questions for the next decade. New acoustic configurations and instruments have the potential to address gaps in current observational capabilities and understanding, for example by providing better definition of vertical and horizontal sediment fluxes. Higher resolution (meter scale) ocean color remote sensing will allow visualization of small-scale features such as frontal boundaries and turbulent eddies in a manner that has not previously been possible. Increasing spectral resolution in ocean color images will allow development of improved algorithms to quantify sediment concentrations remotely. Additionally, the in-water optical techniques used to validate and develop algorithms for ocean color remote sensing can be adapted to estuaries, and are often amenable to rapid survey modes of deployment. In sum, these techniques provide opportunities to improve ETM models and theory.
Recent theoretical analyses of the profiles of velocity and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in estuaries, integral analyses of ETM SSC conservation, and numerical model studies provide important insights into the response of ETM to external forcing and the mechanisms behind ETM particle trapping. However, existing studies produce more questions than answers. For example, it is still not possible to predict, except in very general terms, what trapping mechanisms will be active in different kinds of estuaries, and whether multiple ETM can be expected. The role of nonstationarity, extreme events, and climate change (e.g., mean sea level (MSL) rise and altered flow regimes) on ETM dynamics have not been systematically investigated, and feedbacks between anthropogenic influences and other system changes remain poorly understood. We summarize possible future analysis paths in terms of 10 research questions.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inbook}
}
Estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) are zones of elevated sediment concentration that often occur in coastal plain, salt wedge, and river-dominated estuaries, where they influence the morphodynamic development, biogeochemical cycling, and contaminant redistribution of these systems. In this review, we examine recent advances in in situ and remote sensing techniques that can be used to improve our understanding of ETM, summarize recent theoretical and numerical modeling results, and define a series of research questions for the next decade. New acoustic configurations and instruments have the potential to address gaps in current observational capabilities and understanding, for example by providing better definition of vertical and horizontal sediment fluxes. Higher resolution (meter scale) ocean color remote sensing will allow visualization of small-scale features such as frontal boundaries and turbulent eddies in a manner that has not previously been possible. Increasing spectral resolution in ocean color images will allow development of improved algorithms to quantify sediment concentrations remotely. Additionally, the in-water optical techniques used to validate and develop algorithms for ocean color remote sensing can be adapted to estuaries, and are often amenable to rapid survey modes of deployment. In sum, these techniques provide opportunities to improve ETM models and theory.
Recent theoretical analyses of the profiles of velocity and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in estuaries, integral analyses of ETM SSC conservation, and numerical model studies provide important insights into the response of ETM to external forcing and the mechanisms behind ETM particle trapping. However, existing studies produce more questions than answers. For example, it is still not possible to predict, except in very general terms, what trapping mechanisms will be active in different kinds of estuaries, and whether multiple ETM can be expected. The role of nonstationarity, extreme events, and climate change (e.g., mean sea level (MSL) rise and altered flow regimes) on ETM dynamics have not been systematically investigated, and feedbacks between anthropogenic influences and other system changes remain poorly understood. We summarize possible future analysis paths in terms of 10 research questions. |
Moftakahri, H R; Jay, D A; Talke, S A; Schoellhamer, D H Estimation of historic flows and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay, 1848-2011 Journal Article In: Journal of Hydrology, 529 (3), pp. 1247-1261, 2015. BibTeX @article{Moftakahri2015,
title = {Estimation of historic flows and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay, 1848-2011},
author = {H. R. Moftakahri and D. A. Jay and S. A. Talke and D. H. Schoellhamer},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-08-20},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
volume = {529},
number = {3},
pages = {1247-1261},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Orton, P M; Talke, S A; Jay, D A; Yin, L; Blumberg, A F; Georgas, N; Zhao, H; Roberts, H J; MacManus, K Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding Journal Article In: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 3 (3), pp. 654-673, 2015. BibTeX @article{Orton2015,
title = {Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding},
author = {P. M. Orton and S. A. Talke and D. A. Jay and L. Yin and A. F. Blumberg and N. Georgas and H. Zhao and H. J. Roberts and K. MacManus},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-07-21},
journal = {Journal of Marine Science and Engineering},
volume = {3},
number = {3},
pages = {654-673},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Talke, S A; Orton, P; Jay, D A Increasing storm tides in New York Harbor, 1844-2013 Journal Article In: Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (9), 2014. Links | BibTeX @article{TalkeOrtonJay2014,
title = {Increasing storm tides in New York Harbor, 1844-2013},
author = {S. A. Talke and P. Orton and D. A. Jay},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059574},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL059574},
year = {2014},
date = {2014-05-01},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {41},
number = {9},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
de Jonge, V N; Schuttelaars, H M; Beusekom, M.van J M; Talke, S A; de Swart, H E The influence of channel deepening on estuarine turbidity dynamics, as exemplified by the Ems estuary Journal Article In: Estuary, Coastal and Shelf Science, 139 , pp. 46-59, 2014. Links | BibTeX @article{deJongeetal2014,
title = {The influence of channel deepening on estuarine turbidity dynamics, as exemplified by the Ems estuary},
author = {V. N. de Jonge and H. M. Schuttelaars and J. M. M.van Beusekom and S. A. Talke and H. E. de Swart},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771413005544},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecss.2013.12.030},
year = {2014},
date = {2014-02-01},
journal = {Estuary, Coastal and Shelf Science},
volume = {139},
pages = {46-59},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Devlin, A T; Jay, D A; Talke, S A; Zaron, E D Can tidal perturbations associated with sea level variations in the western Pacific Ocean be used to understand future effects of tidal evolution? Journal Article In: Ocean Dynamics, 64 (8), pp. 1093-1120, 2014. Links | BibTeX @article{DevlinJayTalkeZaron:2014,
title = {Can tidal perturbations associated with sea level variations in the western Pacific Ocean be used to understand future effects of tidal evolution?},
author = {A. T. Devlin and D. A. Jay and S. A. Talke and E. D. Zaron},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-014-0741-6},
doi = {10.1007/s10236-014-0741-6},
year = {2014},
date = {2014-01-01},
journal = {Ocean Dynamics},
volume = {64},
number = {8},
pages = {1093-1120},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Talke, S A; Horner-Devine, A R; Chickadel, C C; Jessup, A T Turbulent kinetic energy and coherent structures in a tidal river Journal Article In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118 (12), pp. 6965-6981, 2013. Links | BibTeX @article{TalkeHornerDevineChickadelJessup2013,
title = {Turbulent kinetic energy and coherent structures in a tidal river},
author = {S. A. Talke and A. R. Horner-Devine and C. C. Chickadel and A. T. Jessup},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2012JC008103},
doi = {10.1002/2012JC008103},
year = {2013},
date = {2013-12-01},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
volume = {118},
number = {12},
pages = {6965-6981},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Moftakahri, H R; Jay, D A; Talke, S A; Kukulka, T; Bromirski, P D A novel approach to flow estimation in tidal rivers Journal Article In: Water Resources Research, 49 (8), pp. 1-16, 2013. Links | BibTeX @article{Moftakharietal2013,
title = {A novel approach to flow estimation in tidal rivers},
author = {H. R. Moftakahri and D. A. Jay and S. A. Talke and T. Kukulka and P. D. Bromirski},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20363},
doi = {10.1002/wrcr.20363},
year = {2013},
date = {2013-08-01},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
volume = {49},
number = {8},
pages = {1-16},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Talke, S A; Jay, D A Nineteenth Century North American and Pacific Tides: Lost or just forgotten? Journal Article In: Journal of Coastal Research, 29 (6a), pp. 118-127, 2013. Links | BibTeX @article{TalkeJay2013,
title = {Nineteenth Century North American and Pacific Tides: Lost or just forgotten?},
author = {S. A. Talke and D. A. Jay},
url = {http://www.jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00181.1},
doi = {10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00181.1},
year = {2013},
date = {2013-01-01},
journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},
volume = {29},
number = {6a},
pages = {118-127},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|