Devlin, A; Jay, D A; Talke, S A; Zaron, E D; Pan, J; Lin, H Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels Journal Article In: Scientific Reports, 7 , 2017. Abstract | Links | BibTeX @article{articleb,
title = {Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels},
author = {A. Devlin and D. A. Jay and S. A. Talke and E. D. Zaron and J. Pan and H. Lin},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-17056-z},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-17056-z},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-12-05},
booktitle = {Scientific Reports},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
volume = {7},
abstract = {Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales. |
Devlin, A T; Jay, D A; Zaron, E D; Talke, S A; Pan, J; Lin, H Tidal Variability Related to Sea Level Variability in the Pacific Ocean Journal Article In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, pp. n/a–n/a, 2017, ISSN: 2169-9291. Abstract | Links | BibTeX @article{JGRC:JGRC22519,
title = {Tidal Variability Related to Sea Level Variability in the Pacific Ocean},
author = {A. T. Devlin and D. A. Jay and E. D. Zaron and S. A. Talke and J. Pan and H. Lin},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013165},
doi = {10.1002/2017JC013165},
issn = {2169-9291},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-09-30},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
pages = {n/a--n/a},
abstract = {Ocean tides are changing worldwide for reasons unrelated to astronomical forcing. Changes in tidal properties coupled with altered mean sea level (MSL) may yield higher peak water levels and increased occurrence of short-term exceedance events such as storm surge and nuisance flooding. Here we investigate the hypothesis that changes in relative sea-level are correlated with alterations in tidal amplitudes. Our approach focuses on the correlation between short-term (monthly to interannual) fluctuations in sea-level with changes in tidal properties of major ocean tides (M2, and K1; S2 and O1) at 152 gauges. Results suggest that sea-level variability is correlated to inter-annual tidal variability at most (92%) of tide gauges in the Pacific, with statistically significant rates between ±10 and ±500 mm per meter sea-level rise observed. These tidal anomalies, while influenced by basin-scale climate processes and sea-level changes, appear to be locally forced (in part) and not coherent over amphidromic or basin-wide scales. Overall, the Western Pacific shows a greater concentration of tide/sea level correlations at interannual time scales than the Eastern Pacific; 44% and 46% of gauges are significant in K1 and O1 in the west compared to 29% and 30% in the east, and 63% and 53% of gauges in the west are significant in M2 and S2 versus 47% and 32% in the east. Seasonal variation in tidal properties is less apparent in the empirical record, with statistically significant seasonal variations observed at only 35% of all gauges, with the largest concentrations in Southeast Asia.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Ocean tides are changing worldwide for reasons unrelated to astronomical forcing. Changes in tidal properties coupled with altered mean sea level (MSL) may yield higher peak water levels and increased occurrence of short-term exceedance events such as storm surge and nuisance flooding. Here we investigate the hypothesis that changes in relative sea-level are correlated with alterations in tidal amplitudes. Our approach focuses on the correlation between short-term (monthly to interannual) fluctuations in sea-level with changes in tidal properties of major ocean tides (M2, and K1; S2 and O1) at 152 gauges. Results suggest that sea-level variability is correlated to inter-annual tidal variability at most (92%) of tide gauges in the Pacific, with statistically significant rates between ±10 and ±500 mm per meter sea-level rise observed. These tidal anomalies, while influenced by basin-scale climate processes and sea-level changes, appear to be locally forced (in part) and not coherent over amphidromic or basin-wide scales. Overall, the Western Pacific shows a greater concentration of tide/sea level correlations at interannual time scales than the Eastern Pacific; 44% and 46% of gauges are significant in K1 and O1 in the west compared to 29% and 30% in the east, and 63% and 53% of gauges in the west are significant in M2 and S2 versus 47% and 32% in the east. Seasonal variation in tidal properties is less apparent in the empirical record, with statistically significant seasonal variations observed at only 35% of all gauges, with the largest concentrations in Southeast Asia. |
Hudson, A S; Talke, S A; Jay, D A Using Satellite Observations to Characterize the Response of Estuarine Turbidity Maxima to External Forcing Journal Article In: Estuaries and Coasts, 40 (2), pp. 343–358, 2017, ISSN: 1559-2731. Abstract | Links | BibTeX @article{Hudson2017,
title = {Using Satellite Observations to Characterize the Response of Estuarine Turbidity Maxima to External Forcing},
author = {A. S. Hudson and S. A. Talke and D. A. Jay},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-016-0164-3},
doi = {10.1007/s12237-016-0164-3},
issn = {1559-2731},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-03-01},
journal = {Estuaries and Coasts},
volume = {40},
number = {2},
pages = {343--358},
abstract = {This study explores the spatial and temporal character of turbidity maxima in the Columbia River Estuary (CRE) using satellite observations. Surface reflectance data measured by the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were calibrated against in situ measurements of surface turbidity (R 2 = 0.85 for 205 measurements). More than 1500 satellite images from 2000 to 2015 were then conditionally sampled to explore the physical processes that drive the spatial distribution of the turbidity field. We find satellite measurements are able to describe seasonal, spring--neap, and spatial features of the estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) that are not easily observable by other means. System-wide levels of turbidity are most sensitive to river flow and spring--neap tidal range, with a weaker correlation to wind and waves. Maximum surface turbidity is observed in winter during elevated flow from coastal tributaries and remains elevated during the spring freshet of the main stem Columbia. Two ETM with asymmetric along-channel profiles are observed, one in the North Channel and another in the South Channel. Turbidity distributions migrate downstream as tidal range and river flow increase but appear to become topographically trapped near topographic holes at river kilometers 15--20. Hence, depth-sensitive circulation processes like internal asymmetry and gravitational circulation are likely important mechanisms for trapping particles and determining ETM location. These conclusions confirm the theoretical result that along-channel distributions of turbidity should have an asymmetric distribution and emphasize the role of bottom topography.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This study explores the spatial and temporal character of turbidity maxima in the Columbia River Estuary (CRE) using satellite observations. Surface reflectance data measured by the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were calibrated against in situ measurements of surface turbidity (R 2 = 0.85 for 205 measurements). More than 1500 satellite images from 2000 to 2015 were then conditionally sampled to explore the physical processes that drive the spatial distribution of the turbidity field. We find satellite measurements are able to describe seasonal, spring--neap, and spatial features of the estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) that are not easily observable by other means. System-wide levels of turbidity are most sensitive to river flow and spring--neap tidal range, with a weaker correlation to wind and waves. Maximum surface turbidity is observed in winter during elevated flow from coastal tributaries and remains elevated during the spring freshet of the main stem Columbia. Two ETM with asymmetric along-channel profiles are observed, one in the North Channel and another in the South Channel. Turbidity distributions migrate downstream as tidal range and river flow increase but appear to become topographically trapped near topographic holes at river kilometers 15--20. Hence, depth-sensitive circulation processes like internal asymmetry and gravitational circulation are likely important mechanisms for trapping particles and determining ETM location. These conclusions confirm the theoretical result that along-channel distributions of turbidity should have an asymmetric distribution and emphasize the role of bottom topography. |
Moftakahri, H R; Jay, D A; Talke, S A Estimating river discharge using multiple-tide gauges distributed along a channel Journal Article In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (4), pp. 2078-2097, 2016. BibTeX @article{Moftakahri2016,
title = {Estimating river discharge using multiple-tide gauges distributed along a channel},
author = {H. R. Moftakahri and D. A. Jay and S. A. Talke},
year = {2016},
date = {2016-04-01},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
volume = {121},
number = {4},
pages = {2078-2097},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Hoitink, A J F; Jay, D A Tidal river dynamics: Implications for deltas Journal Article In: Reviews of Geophysics, 54 (1), pp. 240–272, 2016, ISSN: 1944-9208, (2015RG000507). Abstract | Links | BibTeX @article{ROG:ROG20097,
title = {Tidal river dynamics: Implications for deltas},
author = {A. J. F. Hoitink and D. A. Jay},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000507},
doi = {10.1002/2015RG000507},
issn = {1944-9208},
year = {2016},
date = {2016-01-01},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
volume = {54},
number = {1},
pages = {240--272},
abstract = {Tidal rivers are a vital and little studied nexus between physical oceanography and hydrology. It is only in the last few decades that substantial research efforts have been focused on the interactions of river discharge with tidal waves and storm surges into regions beyond the limit of salinity intrusion, a realm that can extend inland hundreds of kilometers. One key phenomenon resulting from this interaction is the emergence of large fortnightly tides, which are forced long waves with amplitudes that may increase beyond the point where astronomical tides have become extinct. These can be larger than the linear tide itself at more landward locations, and they greatly influence tidal river water levels and wetland inundation. Exploration of the spectral redistribution and attenuation of tidal energy in rivers has led to new appreciation of a wide range of consequences for fluvial and coastal sedimentology, delta evolution, wetland conservation, and salinity intrusion under the influence of sea level rise and delta subsidence. Modern research aims at unifying traditional harmonic tidal analysis, nonparametric regression techniques, and the existing understanding of tidal hydrodynamics to better predict and model tidal river dynamics both in single-thread channels and in branching channel networks. In this context, this review summarizes results from field observations and modeling studies set in tidal river environments as diverse as the Amazon in Brazil, the Columbia, Fraser and Saint Lawrence in North America, the Yangtze and Pearl in China, and the Berau and Mahakam in Indonesia. A description of state-of-the-art methods for a comprehensive analysis of water levels, wave propagation, discharges, and inundation extent in tidal rivers is provided. Implications for lowland river deltas are also discussed in terms of sedimentary deposits, channel bifurcation, avulsion, and salinity intrusion, addressing contemporary research challenges.},
note = {2015RG000507},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Tidal rivers are a vital and little studied nexus between physical oceanography and hydrology. It is only in the last few decades that substantial research efforts have been focused on the interactions of river discharge with tidal waves and storm surges into regions beyond the limit of salinity intrusion, a realm that can extend inland hundreds of kilometers. One key phenomenon resulting from this interaction is the emergence of large fortnightly tides, which are forced long waves with amplitudes that may increase beyond the point where astronomical tides have become extinct. These can be larger than the linear tide itself at more landward locations, and they greatly influence tidal river water levels and wetland inundation. Exploration of the spectral redistribution and attenuation of tidal energy in rivers has led to new appreciation of a wide range of consequences for fluvial and coastal sedimentology, delta evolution, wetland conservation, and salinity intrusion under the influence of sea level rise and delta subsidence. Modern research aims at unifying traditional harmonic tidal analysis, nonparametric regression techniques, and the existing understanding of tidal hydrodynamics to better predict and model tidal river dynamics both in single-thread channels and in branching channel networks. In this context, this review summarizes results from field observations and modeling studies set in tidal river environments as diverse as the Amazon in Brazil, the Columbia, Fraser and Saint Lawrence in North America, the Yangtze and Pearl in China, and the Berau and Mahakam in Indonesia. A description of state-of-the-art methods for a comprehensive analysis of water levels, wave propagation, discharges, and inundation extent in tidal rivers is provided. Implications for lowland river deltas are also discussed in terms of sedimentary deposits, channel bifurcation, avulsion, and salinity intrusion, addressing contemporary research challenges. |
Jay, D A; Talke, S A; Hudson, A; Twardowski, M S Estuarine turbidity maxima revisited: Instrumental approaches, remote sensing, modeling studies, and new directions Book Chapter In: Ashworth, P J; Best, J L; Parsons, D R (Ed.): 68 , pp. 48-109, Elsevier, 1, 2015, ISBN: 9780444635297. Abstract | Links | BibTeX @inbook{Jay2015,
title = {Estuarine turbidity maxima revisited: Instrumental approaches, remote sensing, modeling studies, and new directions},
author = {D. A. Jay and S. A. Talke and A. Hudson and M. S. Twardowski},
editor = {P. J. Ashworth and J. L. Best and D. R. Parsons
},
doi = {10.1016/B978-0-444-63529-7.00004-3},
isbn = {9780444635297},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-11-23},
volume = {68},
pages = {48-109},
publisher = {Elsevier},
edition = {1},
series = {Developments in Sedimentology},
abstract = {Estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) are zones of elevated sediment concentration that often occur in coastal plain, salt wedge, and river-dominated estuaries, where they influence the morphodynamic development, biogeochemical cycling, and contaminant redistribution of these systems. In this review, we examine recent advances in in situ and remote sensing techniques that can be used to improve our understanding of ETM, summarize recent theoretical and numerical modeling results, and define a series of research questions for the next decade. New acoustic configurations and instruments have the potential to address gaps in current observational capabilities and understanding, for example by providing better definition of vertical and horizontal sediment fluxes. Higher resolution (meter scale) ocean color remote sensing will allow visualization of small-scale features such as frontal boundaries and turbulent eddies in a manner that has not previously been possible. Increasing spectral resolution in ocean color images will allow development of improved algorithms to quantify sediment concentrations remotely. Additionally, the in-water optical techniques used to validate and develop algorithms for ocean color remote sensing can be adapted to estuaries, and are often amenable to rapid survey modes of deployment. In sum, these techniques provide opportunities to improve ETM models and theory.
Recent theoretical analyses of the profiles of velocity and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in estuaries, integral analyses of ETM SSC conservation, and numerical model studies provide important insights into the response of ETM to external forcing and the mechanisms behind ETM particle trapping. However, existing studies produce more questions than answers. For example, it is still not possible to predict, except in very general terms, what trapping mechanisms will be active in different kinds of estuaries, and whether multiple ETM can be expected. The role of nonstationarity, extreme events, and climate change (e.g., mean sea level (MSL) rise and altered flow regimes) on ETM dynamics have not been systematically investigated, and feedbacks between anthropogenic influences and other system changes remain poorly understood. We summarize possible future analysis paths in terms of 10 research questions.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {inbook}
}
Estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) are zones of elevated sediment concentration that often occur in coastal plain, salt wedge, and river-dominated estuaries, where they influence the morphodynamic development, biogeochemical cycling, and contaminant redistribution of these systems. In this review, we examine recent advances in in situ and remote sensing techniques that can be used to improve our understanding of ETM, summarize recent theoretical and numerical modeling results, and define a series of research questions for the next decade. New acoustic configurations and instruments have the potential to address gaps in current observational capabilities and understanding, for example by providing better definition of vertical and horizontal sediment fluxes. Higher resolution (meter scale) ocean color remote sensing will allow visualization of small-scale features such as frontal boundaries and turbulent eddies in a manner that has not previously been possible. Increasing spectral resolution in ocean color images will allow development of improved algorithms to quantify sediment concentrations remotely. Additionally, the in-water optical techniques used to validate and develop algorithms for ocean color remote sensing can be adapted to estuaries, and are often amenable to rapid survey modes of deployment. In sum, these techniques provide opportunities to improve ETM models and theory.
Recent theoretical analyses of the profiles of velocity and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in estuaries, integral analyses of ETM SSC conservation, and numerical model studies provide important insights into the response of ETM to external forcing and the mechanisms behind ETM particle trapping. However, existing studies produce more questions than answers. For example, it is still not possible to predict, except in very general terms, what trapping mechanisms will be active in different kinds of estuaries, and whether multiple ETM can be expected. The role of nonstationarity, extreme events, and climate change (e.g., mean sea level (MSL) rise and altered flow regimes) on ETM dynamics have not been systematically investigated, and feedbacks between anthropogenic influences and other system changes remain poorly understood. We summarize possible future analysis paths in terms of 10 research questions. |
Moftakahri, H R; Jay, D A; Talke, S A; Schoellhamer, D H Estimation of historic flows and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay, 1848-2011 Journal Article In: Journal of Hydrology, 529 (3), pp. 1247-1261, 2015. BibTeX @article{Moftakahri2015,
title = {Estimation of historic flows and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay, 1848-2011},
author = {H. R. Moftakahri and D. A. Jay and S. A. Talke and D. H. Schoellhamer},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-08-20},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
volume = {529},
number = {3},
pages = {1247-1261},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Orton, P M; Talke, S A; Jay, D A; Yin, L; Blumberg, A F; Georgas, N; Zhao, H; Roberts, H J; MacManus, K Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding Journal Article In: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 3 (3), pp. 654-673, 2015. BibTeX @article{Orton2015,
title = {Channel Shallowing as Mitigation of Coastal Flooding},
author = {P. M. Orton and S. A. Talke and D. A. Jay and L. Yin and A. F. Blumberg and N. Georgas and H. Zhao and H. J. Roberts and K. MacManus},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-07-21},
journal = {Journal of Marine Science and Engineering},
volume = {3},
number = {3},
pages = {654-673},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Jay, D A; Leffler, K; Diefenderfer, H L; Borde, A B Tidal-fluvial and estuarine processes in the Lower Columbia River: I. Along-channel water level variations, Pacific Ocean to Bonneville Dam Journal Article In: Estuaries and Coasts, 38 (2), pp. 415-433, 2015. Links | BibTeX @article{JayLefflerDiefenderferBorde2015,
title = {Tidal-fluvial and estuarine processes in the Lower Columbia River: I. Along-channel water level variations, Pacific Ocean to Bonneville Dam},
author = {D. A. Jay and K. Leffler and H. L. Diefenderfer and A. B. Borde},
doi = {10.1007/s12237-014-9819-0},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-06-01},
journal = {Estuaries and Coasts},
volume = {38},
number = {2},
pages = {415-433},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
Guo, L; van der Wegen, M; Jay, D A; Matte, P; Wang, Z B; Roelvink, D; He, Q River-tide dynamics: Exploration of non stationary and nonlinear tidal behavior in the Yangtze River estuary Journal Article In: Journal of Geophysical Research, 120 (5), pp. 3499-3521, 2015. Links | BibTeX @article{Guo2015,
title = {River-tide dynamics: Exploration of non stationary and nonlinear tidal behavior in the Yangtze River estuary},
author = {L. Guo and M. van der Wegen and D. A. Jay and P. Matte and Z. B. Wang and D. Roelvink and Q. He},
doi = {10.1002/2014JC010491},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-05-19},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
volume = {120},
number = {5},
pages = {3499-3521},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
|
